September 2025 Idaho Falls Market Update | The Success Blueprint

East Idaho home sales are up, average prices are at a record high, and rates have started to ease. In this episode of The Success Blueprint, Jason and Morgan explain what that means for buyers, sellers, and anyone watching the Idaho Falls market closely.

In this episode of The Success Blueprint Podcast, Jason Grider and Morgan Peterson break down the September 2025 real estate market update for Idaho Falls and East Idaho. They cover the Fed’s recent quarter-point rate cut, why mortgage rates had already started moving before that decision, and what the change could mean for both residential borrowers and larger commercial projects.

One of the biggest takeaways from this update is that the Federal Reserve’s September 17, 2025 rate decision matters, but not always in the simple way people assume. Jason points out that mortgage rates often move ahead of Fed announcements, while long-term borrowing costs tend to track broader market signals like the 10-year Treasury yield. Freddie Mac’s mortgage survey archive helps show how those shifts were already happening around the same time. For buyers and investors, that distinction matters because even small movement in rates can make a meaningful difference in affordability.

Jason and Morgan also talk through why refinance activity is picking up again. For homeowners who bought in the higher-rate stretch of the last few years, this may be a good time to review options, but they are careful to point out that not every refinance makes sense. Fees, timelines, and your actual monthly savings all matter. If you are comparing scenarios, it helps to look at both a lender’s numbers and consumer guidance like the CFPB’s refinance worksheet. If you want local help thinking through rates, loan structure, or next steps, Grider & Peterson also has a helpful financing page to get started.

On the local side, this market update highlights a mix of encouraging and cautionary signs. Jason notes that the average East Idaho home price in their MLS is now $445,000, which he says is the highest it has ever been. At the same time, he explains that average price and actual value growth are not always the same thing. A higher mix of luxury sales can pull the average up even while many neighborhoods stay flat or soften slightly. That is part of why pricing strategy matters so much right now, especially for sellers who are tempted to chase older comps instead of paying attention to what is selling now.

The local numbers in this update also show why the market feels stronger than it did a year ago, but still more selective than many sellers expect. Jason shares that total sales are up 9.8% year to date over the previous year, while average days on market in Bonneville County sit at 49. He and Morgan also call out a large number of expired and withdrawn listings, which is another sign that unrealistic pricing can still stall a sale even in an improving market. If you want a realistic sense of what your home might command in today’s market, the team’s home value page is a useful next step before listing.

For buyers, the advice is simple but important: prepare before the perfect opportunity shows up. Waiting on rates, waiting on the right house, or waiting for the market to feel easier can leave people scrambling when a good opportunity appears. Jason and Morgan encourage buyers to get their financing lined up, clean up debt where possible, and be ready to act. That mindset pairs well with their East Idaho home buying guide, and if you want local monthly stats or a neighborhood-specific update, you can always connect with the team directly.

Overall, this September 2025 update is a practical look at a market that is loosening just enough to create opportunity without becoming easy. Sellers still need to price carefully. Buyers still need to be prepared. And anyone watching the East Idaho market should understand that even small changes in rates can influence both payments and competition.

Topics Covered in This Episode

• The Fed’s quarter-point rate drop and what it means for the market
• Why mortgage rates moved before the Fed announcement
• How commercial financing is affected by rate cuts
• Why refinance activity is rising again
• What homeowners should consider before refinancing
• Idaho’s housing costs and why the state no longer feels inexpensive
• Why East Idaho’s average home price hit a record high
• Year-over-year sales growth in the local market
• Days on market and what expired listings reveal
• Seller pricing strategy in a soft but improving market
• Why buyers should prepare now instead of waiting
• How today’s market still creates opportunity for well-prepared buyers and sellers

Clean Transcript

Chapter 1: Intro & Fed Rate Drop Impact

Morgan: Welcome back to The Success Blueprint. We are excited to do the monthly market update. I’m here with my business partner, Jason Grider, and he is the master of numbers. So we are going to get right into it. Jason, as we go through some of these things, what are we seeing? What are some of the exciting updates we have for this month of September?

Jason: First of all, I think the biggest news this month is obviously the Fed. The Fed dropped a quarter point. That was pretty anticipated, but a lot of people were still a little worried at the last minute about whether they would actually go through with it. They did, which is good.

Jason: Mortgage rates were already anticipating that move. Over the last two or three weeks before the drop, we actually saw rates slowly come down. So it is a good thing that the Fed followed through, because if it had not, we probably would have seen a little bump up. As it stands now, we are close to six percent for most 30-year loan notes.

Morgan: Right.

Jason: What I also like to remind people is that mortgage rates are huge, and that is what everyone tends to focus on when they think about the market. But commercial rates matter too. Commercial rates are usually higher than what you are going to get on a home loan.

Jason: So what does this mean? If you are trying to pencil a subdivision, apartment complex, storage units, or some other commercial project, these quarter-point moves are a big deal. Commercial deals adjust off of the Fed. So what is exciting to me is that if we get a couple more drops by the end of the year, and that is still a rumor at this point, that can help larger deals start to work again.

Morgan: It will kind of depend on how this one plays out.

Jason: Exactly. We will see. This is the first real drop we have had in a while, so we will see what happens. But yes, if money becomes more affordable, it helps move larger-scale projects, and a quarter-point or half-point move can make a huge difference when someone is trying to make the numbers work.

Morgan: The math has to math, and this helps it.

Jason: Exactly. Mortgage rates also tend to follow the 10-year Treasury yield pretty closely, and they have in the past as well. The 10-year Treasury was around 4.39 at the time of this update. It has been fairly steady this year, but we did see a slight drop, and that is good.

Chapter 2: Mortgage Rates & Refinance Opportunities

Jason: With that drop over the last few weeks, we have seen a huge influx of refinances nationally. For people who bought in the last few years at seven percent, or even briefly around eight percent, this can be a great opportunity to refinance.

Jason: Depending on the situation, if you can get a full point drop, that may be worth it. Obviously you have to take closing costs into consideration. Every lender handles it a little differently. Some offer no-closing-cost refinances, and while those may not get you the absolute lowest rate, they can still be a good option for people who bought in the last couple of years and want to look at their choices now.

Morgan: I agree. Everybody wants rates to come down because everyone is watching payment. Everyone is more conscious about what the monthly payment will do for their family. But as we always say, and as we know, sometimes when rates go down, property values creep back up. Demand picks up and that frenzy comes back.

Morgan: So it will be interesting to see how much lower they drop and how fast they do it, because we cannot do it too fast or it is going to boost everything back up to what we saw a few years ago.

Jason: Definitely. The last few years we have seen a little bit of softening in property values, but not enough to erase equity for most sellers.

Chapter 3: Idaho Home Prices & National Ranking

Jason: One thing that is interesting is how expensive Idaho has become. I have seen different reports with different numbers, but one report had Idaho as the tenth most expensive state for median home price in the nation, which is pretty crazy. Idaho used to be a pretty affordable place to live even ten years ago, but it has grown really rapidly.

Jason: Utah is even higher, and then of course California and Hawaii are right at the top. It is interesting to see how much Idaho has moved up the scale and how close it is getting to the markets around it.

Jason: In our MLS, the average home price right now is $445,000, which is definitely an uptick. In fact, it is the highest it has ever been. But that does not necessarily mean home values across the board have increased. Values have not really gone up over the last couple of years.

Jason: What is happening is that higher interest rates have not affected higher-income buyers or luxury-home buyers as much as they have affected starter-home buyers. So there are fewer starter homes being sold and more luxury homes being sold. That increases the average without necessarily increasing actual values.

Morgan: So with that being said, when somebody is looking to sell a home in the market we are currently in, what is the advice you would give them? Somebody is going to look at that average sales price and think, “Wow, that is the highest it has ever been. The market is going up.” What do you tell them?

Jason: I think it comes down to being realistic with comparables. When you are looking at sold comps around your property, be objective. That is hard as a seller because you have done things to your home that matter to you, but those upgrades do not always translate directly into sale price.

Jason: Right now the average days on market in Bonneville County is 49 days. But most homes are not really selling at 49 days. Most homes are either selling in the first two or three weeks, or they are sitting for quite a while unless the seller makes price drops. Some do not sell at all.

Chapter 4: Local Market Snapshot: Sales, Days on Market & Expireds

Morgan: And that brings us to expired and withdrawn listings, which is basically people giving up.

Jason: Right. For the three-month comparison year over year, we were at 482 expired or withdrawn listings. That was a shocker to me when we brought it up with the team.

Morgan: Yes, it was.

Jason: From our standpoint, that usually means one of two things. Either it was a niche property, which pricing can still influence, or people were trying to get last year’s price and had not come to terms with what their home was actually worth in today’s market.

Morgan: I like what you said about looking at the comps and what is going on in the trend. I would not lean on six-month-old comps unless that is all you have. I would try to find out what is happening now, what has sold recently, and let that help dictate what your home is worth.

Jason: Exactly. In a market that was rapidly increasing, like we had for years, you could sometimes price slightly above recent comps and still be okay. But in a declining or soft market, it is almost the reverse. You need to be at or slightly below where recent comps sold if you want to get it sold. Otherwise, you end up chasing the market down and selling for even less.

Morgan: So is now still a good time to sell?

Jason: I think so. I think it is a good time to sell or buy because home prices have softened a bit, but not enough to prevent most people from selling. Anyone who has been in their home longer than two or three years probably still has decent equity.

Jason: It is a good time to sell, especially if you are making a move into something else. A lot of people were held back before because they had such a great rate on the house they already owned. But we are very unlikely to see rates in the twos and threes again in our lifetime. Right now, for a well-qualified buyer, high fives to low sixes is probably where we are going to be for a while.

Chapter 5: Advice for Buyers & Sellers + Wrap-Up

Morgan: And if you are looking to buy a home now or even two years from now, I would encourage you to prepare now. Then when the right home or right rate shows up, you are ready to act. So many people are reactive. A rate drops or a house comes on the market, and then they are scrambling to get taxes done, clean up debt, or improve their debt-to-income ratio.

Morgan: Start setting the goal now so that you are prepared when the opportunity comes.

Jason: Absolutely. Year to date, total sales in 2025 were up about 9.8 percent over 2024, and 2024 was kind of an all-time low. We had been declining for four years in the total number of sales, so this was a real turnaround.

Jason: If this trend continues, and most people expect it to, especially with rates being more stable this year, then right now is a great time because home prices have not really started escalating yet. But if we do another ten percent next year like we did this year, values may start moving higher.

Jason: And when people say, “I will wait for my home to go up before I sell,” remember that you are trading. If your home goes up, the home you are buying has probably gone up too.

Morgan: If your goal is to get into the next house with the lowest payment, you would rather buy while prices are lower and rates are decent. And refinancing is something people do not always fully understand. If you bought at a high rate and rates come down later, you may be able to refinance into something better.

Morgan: That said, not every refinance makes sense. Lenders are always calling when rates change and asking if you want to refinance, but there are fees and costs involved.

Jason: Exactly. You want to run the numbers for your own scenario. Most refinances will have some closing costs. You want to make those costs back fairly quickly. Sometimes your lender may have a no-fee refinance option, and while that may not get you the very lowest rate, it can still be worth looking into if it lowers your payment without a big reset.

Jason: If you are in the seven to eight percent range right now, it is probably worth taking a look. Saving two points can make a significant difference in your payment.

Morgan: To wrap this up, I cannot say it enough: make sure you are prepared to purchase a home. Opportunities are going to come along, and we are excited for the years to come. If market stats are something you are interested in, definitely reach out to me, Jason, or a member of our team. We would love to get you the monthly local market stats that Jason pulls together.

Jason: We do those every month in the middle of the month. If you want to know what is going on in your own neighborhood, let us know. We can tell you what is selling, what is not, and what prices homes are actually closing at so you can be more informed when it is time to make a move.

Morgan: As always, we are excited and happy to be your local real estate experts. If you know anyone looking to buy, sell, or invest in real estate, give us a call. Even if you need a handyman, painter, or another local resource, we want to be that resource for you. If you are curious what your home is worth in this fast-moving market, reach out. We would be excited to work with you.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did the Fed’s September 2025 rate cut mean for Idaho Falls buyers and sellers?

Jason explains that the Fed’s quarter-point cut was important, but mortgage rates had already started moving in anticipation of it. For buyers, lower rates can improve affordability. For sellers, lower rates can also bring more competition back into the market over time as more buyers re-enter.

Is refinancing worth it right now for East Idaho homeowners?

It can be, especially for homeowners who bought when rates were in the seven to eight percent range. But Jason and Morgan stress that refinancing is never just about hearing that rates dropped. Closing costs, lender programs, and your actual monthly savings all need to be part of the equation.

Why is the average East Idaho home price at a record high if values have softened?

Jason points out that a higher average price does not always mean values are rising across the board. In this market, more higher-end homes are selling while fewer starter homes are moving, which can pull the average up even if overall appreciation remains flat or slightly negative in many areas.

What is the biggest mistake sellers are making in this market?

One of the biggest mistakes is pricing a home based on older comps or peak-market expectations instead of what buyers are actually paying right now. Jason says many of the expired and withdrawn listings they are seeing come from sellers who never adjusted to current conditions and ended up chasing the market down instead of pricing realistically from the start.